Why China May Step Up African Security Efforts After Wang Yi’s ‘Close Call’ in Chad

China could be driven to bolster its support for stability in West Africa and the Sahel after the deadly attack in Chad, observers say

Conversation

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi with Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the capital Abuja on January 9, a day after the top diplomat’s visit to Chad. Photo: Xinhua

Jevans Nyabiage

3:33pm, 20 Jan 2025

China is putting its Global Security Initiative to the test in Africa’s conflict-torn Sahel region after gunmen stormed the presidential palace in Chad earlier this month.

The deadly attack came just hours after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had left the country, in what has been seen as a narrow escape for Beijing’s top diplomat.

The attack in the Chadian capital N’Djamena on January 8 left 20 people dead. It was the latest in a worsening security situation, not just in Chad but in many countries across West Africa and the Sahel – a semi-arid region south of the Sahara desert.

China has extensive economic interests in the area long plagued by political instability, military coups and widespread jihadist insurgency.

Analysts say the latest attack could prompt Beijing to step up efforts to help maintain peace and stability in the region.

After Chad, Wang travelled to Nigeria where he reiterated that, as part of its Global Security Initiative, Beijing would provide 1 billion yuan (US$136 million) in military assistance to Africa, and help train 6,000 military personnel and 1,000 police law enforcement officers across the continent.

Emphasising the pledges first made by Chinese President Xi Jinping at last year’s Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) summit, Wang said: “China will firmly support Africa in strengthening its peace and security capacity building.”

Wang also reaffirmed China’s support for Africa to build a standby army and a rapid response force, to help African countries carry out peacekeeping and counterterrorism operations.

Nigeria, for instance, is battling against the militant Islamist movement and jihadist rebel group Boko Haram in the northeast of the country. The group is also active in Chad, Niger, Cameroon and Mali.

China wants Nigeria, as the most populous African nation in the continent and the largest economy in West Africa, to play a larger role in regional security, particularly in the coup-hit Sahel nations of Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Gabon and Niger.

Oil-rich Nigeria is also the current rotating chair of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

“China supports Nigeria in uniting regional countries, adhering to unity and self-reliance, gathering strength through reconciliation, promoting security through development, and maintaining regional peace and stability,” Wang said.

He asserted that China would support Africans to solve African problems in an African way without external interference.

“The African people are the real masters of this continent and have the wisdom, ability and the right to solve their own problems,” Wang said.

Tim Zajontz, research fellow at Stellenbosch University’s Centre for International and Comparative Politics, said maintaining political stability in Nigeria was in Beijing’s interests, considering the significant presence of Chinese firms and citizens across the country. A further growth in arms trade between them was expected, Zajontz added.

China is already a major supplier of military equipment to Nigeria, including armoured vehicles, tanks, fighter jets and self-propelled artillery.

“There has also been talk about localising the production of Chinese arms and military equipment in Nigeria,” Zajontz said.

“Beijing knows that Nigeria, as a political and economic heavyweight in West Africa, is paramount for security in the region.”

Nevertheless, he said Beijing was aware that the highly volatile security situation in the Sahel zone was unlikely to be resolved by simply sending in troops from neighbouring countries, especially after the withdrawal of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso from ECOWAS.

“We might see Chinese efforts at mediating between ECOWAS members and the military juntas in [those three countries],” Zajontz said.

Nigeria was the last stop on Wang’s African trip, a New Year’s tradition for China’s top diplomat for more than three decades. Wang’s four-nation visit started in Namibia, followed by the Republic of the Congo and Chad.

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In the capital Abuja, Wang met Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who requested that China expand its currency swap agreement to enhance bilateral trade.

The currency swap agreement, valued at 15 billion yuan, was renewed recently.

“We still demand more in the area of currency swap,” Tinubu said in a statement, adding that the level approved for Nigeria was “inadequate considering our programme”.

“If you can increase that, it will be well appreciated.”

In response, Wang pledged to “favourably study and consider the issue”.

“Our cooperation is going well in many ways, in terms of finance,” he added.

Wang also said Nigeria was welcome to issue panda bonds, which are typically denominated in the Chinese currency and issued in China by non-Chinese organisations.

Nigeria is China’s most important African market and has received billions of dollars in funding for its ports, railways and petroleum industry.

In 2023, the volume of trade between China and Nigeria passed US$22 billion, of which about 90 per cent were Chinese exports.

Ovigwe Eguegu, policy analyst at Beijing-based consultancy Development Reimagined, said China needed to work closely with Nigeria given the ongoing geopolitical shift in West Africa and the Sahel region.

“A stronger Nigeria-China partnership will be useful for Beijing to protect its interests and consolidate its position in the region,” he said.

Meanwhile, with reference to Wang’s “close call” in Chad, Zajontz said though development cooperation featured prominently in official statements, “regional security issues top the agenda behind closed doors”.

Once firmly under France’s influence, Chad has now joined other former French colonies in terminating its long-standing security agreements with Paris and forcing French troops to leave.

Eguegu said Wang’s visit to Chad could be best understood within that changing geopolitical context – of N’Djamena asking French troops to withdraw.

He said it followed similar actions by neighbours Burkina Faso and Niger. Burkina Faso, he said, recently received much-needed military equipment from China’s Norinco Group. China North Industries Corporation, or Norinco, is the country’s largest weapons manufacturer.